Sports
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
2026_fifa_world_cup_winner resolves 2026-07-20
- Category
- Sports
- Resolution basis
- —
- Canonical outcomes
- 15
- Linked markets
- 6 · 1 venue
Synthesized from event_discovery proposal #5277: llm:anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5 · [merged 5 clusters] Three markets on the same 2026 FIFA World Cup: two individual-candidate binaries (Uzbekistan, Curaçao) plus one generic tournament-winner market. Canonical categorical event with observed candidates plus 'other' for remaining teams. | merged: Three individual-candidate binary markets on the same tournament (2026 FIFA World Cup, same resolution date). Canonical categorical event with named candidates and open-ended 'other' catch-all. | merged: Three individual-candidate binary markets on the same · cluster=15
§ Cross-venue price panel
| Venue | Outcome | Current | 24h Δ | Volume | Liquidity | 30d | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Polymarket
us
|
Asia Yes | 0.033 | — | $224.4k | $56.5k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Asia No | 0.967 | — | $224.4k | $56.5k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Europe Yes | 0.725 | — | $110.5k | $29.0k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Europe No | 0.275 | — | $110.5k | $29.0k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Haiti Yes | 0.010 | — | $20.0k | $27.6k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Haiti No | 0.990 | — | $20.0k | $27.6k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Iraq Yes | 0.021 | — | $42.6k | $27.4k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Iraq No | 0.980 | — | $42.6k | $27.4k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Oceania Yes | 0.0025 | — | $239.0k | $68.4k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Oceania No | 0.998 | — | $239.0k | $68.4k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Sweden Yes | 0.140 | — | $23.8k | $24.1k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Sweden No | 0.860 | — | $23.8k | $24.1k | polymarket |
§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)
No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.
§ Spread history
No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.
§ Canonical outcomes
- uzbekistan Uzbekistan
- curacao Curaçao
- cape_verde Cape Verde
- haiti Haiti
- norway Norway
- congo_dr Congo DR
- panama Panama
- iraq Iraq
- czechia Czechia
- sweden Sweden
- bosnia_herzegovina Bosnia-Herzegovina
- oceania Oceania
- asia Asia
- other Other
- europe Europe
§ Linked markets
Will Oceania win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
proposal #5415: title_jaccard=0.80 · category=sports · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=oceania
- External ID
- 840932
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $239.0k
- Status
- Active
Will Asia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
proposal #5416: title_jaccard=0.80 · category=sports · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=asia
- External ID
- 840928
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $224.4k
- Status
- Active
Will Iraq win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
proposal #7786: title_jaccard=0.67 · date_prox=0.23 · category=sports · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=iraq
- External ID
- 839961
- Matched
- 6h ago
- Volume
- $42.6k
- Status
- Active
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
proposal #8079: title_jaccard=0.67 · date_prox=0.23 · category=sports · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=sweden
- External ID
- 839436
- Matched
- 6h ago
- Volume
- $23.8k
- Status
- Active
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
proposal #8176: title_jaccard=0.67 · date_prox=0.23 · category=sports · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=haiti
- External ID
- 839401
- Matched
- 6h ago
- Volume
- $20.0k
- Status
- Active
Will Europe win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
proposal #8446: expansion: detected entity "Europe" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 840929
- Matched
- 3h ago
- Volume
- $110.5k
- Status
- Active