§ Category
Crypto Price Milestones
Price-by-date milestones, cycle peaks, halving-adjacent markets.
§ Primer
Price-by-date milestones, cycle peaks, halving-adjacent markets.
Crypto-price markets are the largest class of non-election contracts by volume. Polymarket carries dense coverage of "Will BTC hit $X by DATE" threshold questions; ForecastEx lists month-resolution BTC/ETH contracts; Futuur has a long tail of altcoin and cycle-peak markets that appear nowhere else.
Canonical outcomes are binary (yes/no) with the threshold and resolution date encoded in the event title + canonical_resolution_date. The matcher has crypto-specific rules that penalize ticker or threshold mismatches — "BTC to $150k by Sep" and "BTC to $150k by Dec" are different events even though their structures look identical to a naive tokenizer.
Pitfalls: which exchange's price feed resolves the market, whether a wick or a sustained close settles it, what happens if the exchange delists or halts the instrument mid-market. Storm shows each venue's stated resolution source; cross-venue arbitrage assumes both resolve on the same underlying price.
§ Matcher threshold
§ Active events
§ Recently resolved
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