Climate & Weather

§ Primer

Weather milestones, hurricane landfalls, policy decisions, climate-data records.

Climate markets split between weather-specific events (will hurricane X make landfall, will season Y break a heat record) and policy-specific ones (will country Z ratify the next climate accord, will ETS carbon hit $X). ForecastEx lists per-city weather bands with settlement-only resolution; Kalshi has a growing environmental category; Manifold runs long-tail markets on specific model runs and named storms.

Canonical outcomes are typically binary (threshold hit / not hit) with the threshold and the measurement basis in the event title. The matcher has no climate-specific rules today — events are grouped on shared location + year + threshold tokens.

Pitfalls: which weather agency's reading is definitive (NOAA vs JMA vs WMO), retroactive data adjustments, and hurricane markets that resolve on landfall definition (eye crossing the coast vs sustained wind radius). Storm shows the stated resolution source per event.

§ Matcher threshold

§ Active events

No open events in this category yet — Storm's event ontology will grow as matchers and discovery identify coherent clusters.

§ Recently resolved

No resolved or expired events in this category yet.

§ Top venues in this category

No linked markets in this category yet — venue coverage will populate as matchers run against ingested markets.