Eyewall Markets Market Compendium

Probability-sum arbs

Within-venue categorical price-axiom violations discovered by Storm — venues whose multi-candidate books price the field at a sum materially above 1.00.

Storm scans every venue's multi-candidate categorical book each tick. By the probability axiom the YES prices across all candidates should sum to ≈ $1.00; when a venue's sum materially exceeds that, shorting every YES leg captures the excess upfront against a bounded payout (exactly one candidate's YES resolves at $1.00). Sorted by excess after fees. Research signal — Storm does not place orders or advise on trades.

  1. 25850 bps
    kalshi · 2026 Grammy Best New Artist Nominees/Winner
    Sum of YES = $3.585 across 9 candidates
    2m ago
  2. 25770 bps
    polymarket · Crypto Projects Launching Tokens by December 31, 2026
    Sum of YES = $3.577 across 10 candidates
    22m ago
  3. 23800 bps
    kalshi · When Will Databricks Officially Announce an IPO?
    Sum of YES = $3.380 across 12 candidates
    22m ago
  4. 21465 bps
    polymarket · 2026 FIFA World Cup
    Sum of YES = $3.147 across 44 candidates
    17m ago
  5. 17365 bps
    polymarket · FIFA World Cup 2026 winner
    Sum of YES = $2.736 across 39 candidates
    17m ago
  6. 15750 bps
    kalshi · 2027 Super Bowl LXI Halftime Show Headliner
    Sum of YES = $2.575 across 21 candidates
    27m ago
  7. 14400 bps
    kalshi · 2026 NFL Draft 1st Round Pick
    Sum of YES = $2.440 across 5 candidates
    32m ago
  8. 13605 bps
    kalshi · 2026 California Gubernatorial Primary Nominees
    Sum of YES = $2.361 across 46 candidates
    17m ago
  9. 12855 bps
    polymarket · 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
    Sum of YES = $2.285 across 32 candidates
    17m ago
  10. 10205 bps
    polymarket · 2026 California Governor Election Winner
    Sum of YES = $2.021 across 32 candidates
    17m ago
  11. 9900 bps
    polymarket · 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Squad Selections
    Sum of YES = $1.990 across 5 candidates
    17m ago
  12. 8450 bps
    kalshi · 79th Tony Awards Winners
    Sum of YES = $1.845 across 5 candidates
    20h ago
  13. 7600 bps
    kalshi · GTA VI Launch Price
    Sum of YES = $1.760 across 5 candidates
    17m ago
  14. 6400 bps
    kalshi · Next James Bond Film Theme Song Performer
    Sum of YES = $1.640 across 13 candidates
    17m ago
  15. 3150 bps
    kalshi · Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL?
    Sum of YES = $1.315 across 9 candidates
    7m ago
  16. 2350 bps
    kalshi · Welterweight Boxing Champion on December 31, 2026
    Sum of YES = $1.235 across 11 candidates
    32m ago
  17. 2300 bps
    kalshi · Cover 2k27 Who NBA
    Sum of YES = $1.230 across 10 candidates
    32m ago
  18. 1950 bps
    kalshi · 2027 Achievement Nominations Casting Oscar
    Sum of YES = $1.195 across 4 candidates
    32m ago
  19. 1850 bps
    kalshi · Next Head Coach of the Orlando Magic
    Sum of YES = $1.185 across 20 candidates
    32m ago
  20. 1800 bps
    kalshi · 2026 Lightweight Boxing Champion on December 31
    Sum of YES = $1.180 across 8 candidates
    27m ago
  21. 1355 bps
    polymarket · June 2026 FOMC rate decision
    Sum of YES = $1.135 across 7 candidates
    22m ago
  22. 1200 bps
    kalshi · 2026 Presidential Medal of Freedom Recipients
    Sum of YES = $1.120 across 5 candidates
    22m ago
  23. 1050 bps
    kalshi · First company AGI announcement by 2027
    Sum of YES = $1.105 across 4 candidates
    22m ago

23 rows shown.