Event №502 · Last revised 2026-05-30
Open

Sports

2026 FIFA World Cup

world_cup_fifa_qualify resolves 2026-07-11

Category
Sports
Resolution basis
Canonical outcomes
124
Linked markets
126 · 3 venues

§ Cross-venue price panel

Cross-venue price panel
VenueOutcome Current24h Δ VolumeLiquidity 30dLink
Betfair Exchange uk
Algeria Algeria 0.083 $9.5k $14.6k betfair
Kalshi us
yes 0.0015 $1.15M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0040 $2.3k $12.9k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Algeria no 0.999 $1.15M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.996 $2.3k $12.9k polymarket
Betfair Exchange uk
Argentina Argentina 0.355 $4.6k $8.2k betfair
Kalshi us
yes 0.088 $3.38M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.065 $3.6k $30.7k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Argentina no 0.911 $3.38M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.935 $3.6k $30.7k polymarket
Betfair Exchange uk
Australia Australia 0.106 $14.8k $11.0k betfair
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0035 $1.9k $36.5k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Australia No 0.997 $1.9k $36.5k polymarket
Betfair Exchange uk
Austria Austria $3.6k $19.3k betfair
Kalshi us
yes 0.0045 $1.52M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0040 $1.9k $13.5k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Austria no 0.996 $1.52M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.996 $1.9k $13.5k polymarket
Betfair Exchange uk
Belgium Belgium $3.6k $19.3k betfair
Kalshi us
yes 0.022 $3.20M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.041 $3.4k $24.5k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Belgium no 0.978 $3.20M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.959 $3.4k $24.5k polymarket
Betfair Exchange uk
Brazil Brazil 0.323 $4.6k $8.2k betfair
Kalshi us
yes 0.079 $3.30M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.095 $5.0k $22.2k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Brazil no 0.921 $3.30M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.905 $5.0k $22.2k polymarket
Betfair Exchange uk
Canada Canada 0.238 $11.5k $8.7k betfair
Kalshi us
yes 0.0035 $1.84M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0035 $1.5k $47.1k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Canada no 0.997 $1.84M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.997 $1.5k $47.1k polymarket
Betfair Exchange uk
Cape Verde Cape Verde 0.022 $9.5k $14.6k betfair
Kalshi us
yes 0.670 1 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT Cape Verde no 0.330 1 1 kalshi
Betfair Exchange uk
Colombia Colombia 0.139 $4.6k $8.2k betfair
Polymarket us
Yes 0.011 $2.8k $22.7k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Colombia No 0.989 $2.8k $22.7k polymarket
Betfair Exchange uk
Congo DR DR Congo 0.038 $9.5k $14.6k betfair
Betfair Exchange uk
Croatia Croatia $3.6k $19.3k betfair
Kalshi us
yes 0.0095 $3.08M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0045 $2.1k $12.6k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Croatia no 0.991 $3.08M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.996 $2.1k $12.6k polymarket
Betfair Exchange uk
Curacao Curacao 0.013 $11.5k $8.7k betfair
Kalshi us
yes 0.860 $2.0k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT Curacao no 0.140 $2.0k 1 kalshi
Betfair Exchange uk
Czechia Czechia $3.6k $19.3k betfair
Kalshi us
yes 0.175 $167 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.185 $25.6k $62.8k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Czechia no 0.825 $167 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.815 $25.6k $62.8k polymarket
Betfair Exchange uk
Ecuador Ecuador 0.071 $4.6k $8.2k betfair
Kalshi us
yes 0.0085 $2.86M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0040 $2.0k $23.8k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Ecuador no 0.992 $2.86M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.996 $2.0k $23.8k polymarket
Betfair Exchange uk
Egypt Egypt 0.122 $9.5k $14.6k betfair
Kalshi us
yes 0.125 $75 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.185 $25.4k $49.0k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Egypt no 0.875 $75 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.815 $25.4k $49.0k polymarket
Betfair Exchange uk
England England $3.6k $19.3k betfair
Kalshi us
yes 0.070 1 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT England no 0.930 1 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
England Top Team Goalscorer Yes 0.013 $159.7k $119.9k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT England Top Team Goalscorer No 0.987 $159.7k $119.9k polymarket
Polymarket us
Final Yes 0.134 $13.6k $8.0k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Final No 0.866 $13.6k $8.0k polymarket
Betfair Exchange uk
First Time Winner Yes 0.299 $77.0k $29.6k betfair
Betfair Exchange uk
NOT First Time Winner No 0.709 $77.0k $29.6k betfair
Betfair Exchange uk
France France $3.6k $19.3k betfair
Kalshi us
yes 0.090 1 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT France no 0.910 1 1 kalshi
Betfair Exchange uk
Germany Germany $3.6k $19.3k betfair
Kalshi us
yes 0.059 $2.95M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.125 $7.7k $19.1k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Germany no 0.941 $2.95M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.875 $7.7k $19.1k polymarket
Betfair Exchange uk
Ghana Ghana 0.067 $9.5k $14.6k betfair
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0045 $1.9k $13.0k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Ghana No 0.996 $1.9k $13.0k polymarket
Polymarket us
Golden Ball Yes 0.038 $1.9k $20.3k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Golden Ball No 0.962 $1.9k $20.3k polymarket
Betfair Exchange uk
Haiti Haiti 0.014 $11.5k $8.7k betfair
Kalshi us
yes 0.795 $2.3k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0070 $53.7k $119.4k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Haiti no 0.205 $2.3k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.993 $53.7k $119.4k polymarket
Betfair Exchange uk
Iraq Iraq 0.028 $14.8k $11.0k betfair
Kalshi us
yes 0.795 $995 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.010 $71.3k $114.5k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Iraq no 0.205 $995 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.990 $71.3k $114.5k polymarket
Betfair Exchange uk
Ivory Coast Ivory Coast 0.135 $9.5k $14.6k betfair
Betfair Exchange uk
Japan Japan 0.450 $14.8k $11.0k betfair
Kalshi us
yes 0.135 1 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.265 $123.8k $72.5k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Japan no 0.865 1 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.735 $123.8k $72.5k polymarket
Betfair Exchange uk
Jordan Jordan 0.022 $14.8k $11.0k betfair
Kalshi us
yes 0.0010 $346.1k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0035 $1.9k $34.2k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Jordan no 0.999 $346.1k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.997 $1.9k $34.2k polymarket
Polymarket us
Korea Republic Yes 0.043 $27.3k $42.8k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Korea Republic No 0.957 $27.3k $42.8k polymarket
Betfair Exchange uk
Mexico Mexico 0.388 $11.5k $8.7k betfair
Kalshi us
yes 0.018 $6.39M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0055 $2.6k $15.3k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Mexico no 0.983 $6.39M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.995 $2.6k $15.3k polymarket
Betfair Exchange uk
Morocco Morocco 0.308 $9.5k $14.6k betfair
Kalshi us
yes 0.015 $4.21M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0095 $3.2k $12.7k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Morocco no 0.985 $4.21M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.991 $3.2k $12.7k polymarket
Betfair Exchange uk
Netherlands Netherlands $3.6k $19.3k betfair
Kalshi us
yes 0.048 $4.74M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.035 $3.0k $28.7k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Netherlands no 0.953 $4.74M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.966 $3.0k $28.7k polymarket
Kalshi us
New Zealand yes 0.070 1 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT New Zealand no 0.930 1 1 kalshi
Betfair Exchange uk
Norway Norway $3.6k $19.3k betfair
Kalshi us
yes 0.045 $16 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.245 $48.3k $48.7k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Norway no 0.955 $16 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.755 $48.3k $48.7k polymarket
Betfair Exchange uk
Other / No candidate named South Korea 0.219 $51.8k $88.7k betfair
Betfair Exchange uk
Panama Panama 0.037 $11.5k $8.7k betfair
Kalshi us
yes 0.535 $1.2k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.025 $18.3k $49.5k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Panama no 0.465 $1.2k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.976 $18.3k $49.5k polymarket
Betfair Exchange uk
Paraguay Paraguay 0.063 $4.6k $8.2k betfair
Kalshi us
yes 0.0025 $803.4k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0020 $2.0k $12.4k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Paraguay no 0.998 $803.4k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.998 $2.0k $12.4k polymarket
Betfair Exchange uk
Portugal Portugal $3.6k $19.3k betfair
Kalshi us
yes 0.101 $7.76M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.070 $7.1k $18.7k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Portugal no 0.899 $7.76M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.930 $7.1k $18.7k polymarket
Betfair Exchange uk
Qatar Qatar 0.033 $14.8k $11.0k betfair
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0025 $1.5k $43.3k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Qatar No 0.998 $1.5k $43.3k polymarket
Betfair Exchange uk
Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia 0.059 $14.8k $11.0k betfair
Betfair Exchange uk
Scotland Scotland $3.6k $19.3k betfair
Kalshi us
yes 0.145 $2.0k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.082 $195.1k $77.2k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Scotland no 0.855 $2.0k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.918 $195.1k $77.2k polymarket
Betfair Exchange uk
Senegal Senegal 0.200 $9.5k $14.6k betfair
Kalshi us
yes 0.0075 $1.12M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0040 $1.9k $12.9k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Senegal no 0.993 $1.12M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.996 $1.9k $12.9k polymarket
Betfair Exchange uk
South Africa South Africa 0.038 $9.5k $14.6k betfair
Polymarket us
Yes 0.028 $1.25M $119.3k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT South Africa No 0.973 $1.25M $119.3k polymarket
Betfair Exchange uk
Spain Spain $3.6k $19.3k betfair
Kalshi us
yes 0.165 $4.26M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.185 $6.5k $17.2k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Spain no 0.836 $4.26M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.815 $6.5k $17.2k polymarket
Betfair Exchange uk
Sweden Sweden $3.6k $19.3k betfair
Kalshi us
yes 0.210 $67 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.145 $41.7k $43.1k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Sweden no 0.790 $67 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.855 $41.7k $43.1k polymarket
Betfair Exchange uk
Switzerland Switzerland $3.6k $19.3k betfair
Kalshi us
yes 0.010 $2.15M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.010 $2.5k $48.1k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Switzerland no 0.990 $2.15M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.990 $2.5k $48.1k polymarket
Kalshi us
Top Scorer Nation yes 0.454 $15.8k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT Top Scorer Nation no 0.546 $15.8k 1 kalshi
Betfair Exchange uk
Tunisia Tunisia 0.045 $9.5k $14.6k betfair
Kalshi us
yes 0.0010 $735.4k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT Tunisia no 0.999 $735.4k 1 kalshi
Betfair Exchange uk
Uruguay Uruguay 0.100 $4.6k $8.2k betfair
Kalshi us
yes 0.090 1 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0055 $2.2k $14.7k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Uruguay no 0.910 1 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.995 $2.2k $14.7k polymarket
Betfair Exchange uk
Uzbekistan Uzbekistan 0.040 $14.8k $11.0k betfair
Kalshi us
yes 0.525 $99 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.022 $17.0k $37.5k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Uzbekistan no 0.475 $99 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.978 $17.0k $37.5k polymarket

1 "—" appears in the volume or liquidity column either because the venue's public read endpoint doesn't expose that figure, or because the value Storm observed was zero. Either way, Storm has no positive depth or activity signal to display — not a statement that the market is dead on the venue itself.

§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)

No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.

§ Spread history

No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.

§ Probability-sum arbs

For this categorical event, one or more venues' YES prices sum to more than $1.00 across all candidates — the probability axiom requires the sum to be ≈ $1.00, so the excess is a within-venue arb signal. Selling every YES leg captures the excess upfront; exactly one candidate resolves YES at $1.00, the rest at $0.

  1. polymarket
    Sum of YES = $3.147 across 44 candidates — excess 215¢
    21465 bps

§ Recent news

No news has been matched to this event yet. As Storm's news matcher links incoming items from its public-source feed (USGS, NOAA, FRED, Census, BEA, the White House, State Dept, DOD, Wikinews, Wikipedia, Metaculus, etc.) to canonical events, recent updates appear here.

§ Canonical outcomes

  • group Group
  • winner Winner
  • first-time-winner First Time Winner
  • qualify Qualify
  • reach-semi Reach Semi
  • top-conmebol-team Top CONMEBOL Team
  • winner-golden-boot Winner/Golden Boot
  • golden-ball Golden Ball
  • reach-quarter Reach Quarter
  • top-uefa-team Top UEFA Team
  • name Name
  • finalists Finalists
  • top-afc-team Top AFC Team
  • top-caf-team Top CAF Team
  • winning-group Winning Group
  • colombia Colombia
  • winning-confederation Winning Confederation
  • england England
  • uzbekistan Uzbekistan
  • portugal Portugal
  • congo-dr Congo DR
  • jordan Jordan
  • france France
  • saudi-arabia Saudi Arabia
  • spain Spain
  • ir-iran IR Iran
  • egypt Egypt
  • new-zealand New Zealand
  • tunisia Tunisia
  • ivory-coast Ivory Coast
  • australia Australia
  • paraguay Paraguay
  • turkiye Turkiye
  • brazil Brazil
  • scotland Scotland
  • qatar Qatar
  • switzerland Switzerland
  • mexico Mexico
  • south-africa South Africa
  • czechia Czechia
  • panama Panama
  • ghana Ghana
  • argentina Argentina
  • iraq Iraq
  • senegal Senegal
  • norway Norway
  • sweden Sweden
  • japan Japan
  • curacao Curacao
  • germany Germany
  • canada Canada
  • golden-boot-winner Golden Boot Winner
  • bosnia Bosnia
  • herzegovina Herzegovina
  • qualifiers Qualifiers
  • most-goal-contributions Most Goal Contributions
  • semifinals Semifinals
  • haiti Haiti
  • austria Austria
  • quarterfinals Quarterfinals
  • final Final
  • england-top-team-goalscorer England Top Team Goalscorer
  • round Round
  • ireland Ireland
  • womens Women's
  • india India
  • croatia Croatia
  • uruguay Uruguay
  • morocco Morocco
  • cape-verde Cape Verde
  • korea-republic Korea Republic
  • which Which
  • iran Iran
  • england-stage England Stage
  • elimination Elimination
  • algeria Algeria
  • brazil-stage Brazil Stage
  • reach-round Reach Round
  • netherlands Netherlands
  • belgium Belgium
  • bangladesh Bangladesh
  • england-starting-xi England Starting XI
  • goalkeepers Goalkeepers
  • ecuador Ecuador
  • sub-regional-africa-qualifier Sub Regional Africa Qualifier
  • mali Mali
  • sierra-leone Sierra Leone
  • gen-g-esports Gen.G Esports
  • pakistan Pakistan
  • valorant-fut-esports Valorant FUT Esports
  • bbl-esports-bo3 BBL Esports BO3
  • esports Esports
  • emea-qualifier-stage EMEA Qualifier Stage
  • valorant-nongshim-redforce Valorant Nongshim RedForce
  • drx-bo3 DRX BO3
  • pacific-qualifier-stage Pacific Qualifier Stage
  • sri-lanka Sri Lanka
  • west-indies West Indies
  • valorant-gen-g-esports Valorant Gen.G Esports
  • bo3 BO3
  • most-assists Most Assists
  • dota Dota
  • yangon-galacticos Yangon Galacticos
  • mentality-monster-bo3 Mentality Monster BO3
  • southeast-asia-open-qualifier Southeast Asia Open Qualifier
  • playoffs Playoffs
  • team Team
  • nemiga-gaming-bo3 Nemiga Gaming BO3
  • eastern-europe-open-qualifier Eastern Europe Open Qualifier
  • most-clean-sheets-gk Most Clean Sheets GK
  • top-concacaf-team Top CONCACAF Team
  • france-stage France Stage
  • germany-stage Germany Stage
  • defenders Defenders
  • kenya Kenya
  • valorant Valorant
  • thieves Thieves
  • loud-bo5 LOUD BO5
  • americas-qualifier-stage Americas Qualifier Stage
  • valorant-furia-esports Valorant FURIA Esports
  • nrg-bo3 NRG BO3
  • spain-stage Spain Stage
  • top-scorer-nation Top Scorer Nation
  • other Other / No candidate named