Eyewall Markets Market Compendium
Event №312 · Last revised 2026-05-24
Open

ECB Decision hold — 2026-06 (YES)

bridge_ecb_decision_202606_0_yes resolves 2026-06-30

Category
—
Resolution basis
—
Canonical outcomes
2
Linked markets
3 · 3 venues

§ Cross-venue price panel

Storm consensus 1.3¢ band 1.3–1.3¢ (equal weights — calibration data sparse) ↓ weights
  • Polymarket 33% · price 1¢ · brier 0.250 (fallback)
  • ForecastEx 33% · price 0¢ · brier 0.250 (fallback)
  • Kalshi 33% · price 3¢ · brier 0.250 (fallback)
Cross-venue price panel
VenueOutcome Current24h Δ VolumeLiquidity 30dLink
Kalshi us
no no 0.970 — $23.3k —1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No No 0.990 — $165.0k $18.1k polymarket
ForecastEx us
yes yes 0.0000 — —1 —1 forecastex
Kalshi us
↳ yes 0.030 — $23.3k —1 kalshi
Polymarket us
↳ Yes 0.010 — $165.0k $18.1k polymarket

1 "—" appears in the volume or liquidity column either because the venue's public read endpoint doesn't expose that figure, or because the value Storm observed was zero. Either way, Storm has no positive depth or activity signal to display — not a statement that the market is dead on the venue itself.

§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)

  • yes +89bps
    polymarket YES 0.010 · kalshi NO 0.960 300 bps gross · 211 bps fees · mid-based · 4h ago

§ Spread history

  1. 4h ago yes polymarket YES 0.010 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +89bps
  2. 4h ago yes polymarket YES 0.010 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +89bps
  3. 5h ago yes polymarket YES 0.0060 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +129bps
  4. 5h ago yes polymarket YES 0.0060 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +129bps
  5. 5h ago yes polymarket YES 0.0060 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +129bps
  6. 5h ago yes polymarket YES 0.0060 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +129bps
  7. 6h ago yes polymarket YES 0.0060 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +129bps
  8. 6h ago yes polymarket YES 0.0060 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +129bps
  9. 6h ago yes polymarket YES 0.0060 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +129bps
  10. 7h ago yes polymarket YES 0.0060 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +129bps
  11. 7h ago yes polymarket YES 0.0060 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +129bps
  12. 7h ago yes polymarket YES 0.0060 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +129bps
  13. 7h ago yes polymarket YES 0.0060 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +129bps
  14. 8h ago yes polymarket YES 0.0060 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +129bps
  15. 8h ago yes polymarket YES 0.0060 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +129bps
  16. 8h ago yes polymarket YES 0.0060 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +129bps
  17. 8h ago yes polymarket YES 0.0060 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +129bps
  18. 9h ago yes polymarket YES 0.0060 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +129bps
  19. 9h ago yes polymarket YES 0.0060 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +129bps
  20. 9h ago yes polymarket YES 0.0060 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +129bps
  21. 9h ago yes polymarket YES 0.0060 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +129bps
  22. 9h ago yes polymarket YES 0.0060 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +129bps
  23. 10h ago yes polymarket YES 0.0060 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +129bps
  24. 10h ago yes polymarket YES 0.0060 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +129bps
  25. 10h ago yes polymarket YES 0.0060 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +129bps
  26. 10h ago yes polymarket YES 0.0060 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +129bps
  27. 11h ago yes polymarket YES 0.0060 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +129bps
  28. 11h ago yes polymarket YES 0.0060 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +129bps
  29. 11h ago yes polymarket YES 0.0060 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +129bps
  30. 11h ago yes polymarket YES 0.0060 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +129bps
  31. 12h ago yes polymarket YES 0.0060 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +129bps

Showing most recent 31 observations within your tier's window. Subscribe to see deeper history →

§ Recent news

No news has been matched to this event yet. As Storm's news matcher links incoming items from its public-source feed (USGS, NOAA, FRED, Census, BEA, the White House, State Dept, DOD, Wikinews, Wikipedia, Metaculus, etc.) to canonical events, recent updates appear here.

§ Canonical outcomes

  • yes yes
  • no no