Eyewall Markets Market Compendium
Event №286 · Last revised 2026-05-24
Open

US Consumer Price Index (YoY) above 4.1% — 2026-07 (YES)

bridge_cpi_yearly_202607_4_1_yes resolves 2026-07-31

Category
—
Resolution basis
—
Canonical outcomes
2
Linked markets
2 · 2 venues

§ Cross-venue price panel

Storm consensus 38.2¢ (equal weights — calibration data sparse) ↓ weights
  • Kalshi 50% · price 76¢ · brier 0.250 (fallback)
  • ForecastEx 50% · price 0¢ · brier 0.250 (fallback)
Cross-venue price panel
VenueOutcome Current24h Δ VolumeLiquidity 30dLink
Kalshi us
no no 0.235 — $7.2k —1 kalshi
ForecastEx us
yes yes 0.0000 — —1 —1 forecastex
Kalshi us
↳ yes 0.765 — $7.2k —1 kalshi

1 "—" appears in the volume or liquidity column either because the venue's public read endpoint doesn't expose that figure, or because the value Storm observed was zero. Either way, Storm has no positive depth or activity signal to display — not a statement that the market is dead on the venue itself.

§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)

No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.

§ Spread history

No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.

§ Implication arbs

The antecedent's YES condition is a strict subset of the consequent's, so P(antecedent) ≤ P(consequent) must hold logically. Where live prices violate that ordering, the gap is a research signal — the venues are pricing the same nested question inconsistently.

  1. kalshi: Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.7% for the year ending in July 2026? 61.0¢ YES
    ⊆
    kalshi: Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.1% for the year ending in July 2026? 43.0¢ YES
    1780 bps
  2. kalshi: Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.9% for the year ending in July 2026? 93.0¢ YES
    ⊆
    kalshi: Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.1% for the year ending in July 2026? 76.5¢ YES
    1630 bps
  3. kalshi: Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.2% for the year ending in July 2026? 53.0¢ YES
    ⊆
    kalshi: Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.1% for the year ending in July 2026? 43.0¢ YES
    980 bps
  4. kalshi: Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.8% for the year ending in July 2026? 83.0¢ YES
    ⊆
    kalshi: Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.1% for the year ending in July 2026? 76.5¢ YES
    630 bps
  5. kalshi: Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.1% for the year ending in July 2026? 76.5¢ YES
    ⊆
    kalshi: Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.0% for the year ending in July 2026? 73.5¢ YES
    280 bps

§ Recent news

No news has been matched to this event yet. As Storm's news matcher links incoming items from its public-source feed (USGS, NOAA, FRED, Census, BEA, the White House, State Dept, DOD, Wikinews, Wikipedia, Metaculus, etc.) to canonical events, recent updates appear here.

§ Canonical outcomes

  • yes yes
  • no no