Eyewall Markets Market Compendium
Event №530 · Last revised 2026-06-01
Open

US Elections

2026 California Gubernatorial Primary Nominees

2026_gubernatorial_california_nominees_primary resolves 2027-06-02

Category
US Elections
Resolution basis
—
Canonical outcomes
9
Linked markets
77 · 1 venue

§ Cross-venue price panel

Cross-venue price panel
VenueOutcome Current24h Δ VolumeLiquidity 30dLink
Kalshi us
California yes 0.046 — $2.21M —1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT California no 0.954 — $2.21M —1 kalshi

1 "—" appears in the volume or liquidity column either because the venue's public read endpoint doesn't expose that figure, or because the value Storm observed was zero. Either way, Storm has no positive depth or activity signal to display — not a statement that the market is dead on the venue itself.

§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)

No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.

§ Spread history

No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.

§ Probability-sum arbs

For this categorical event, one or more venues' YES prices sum to more than $1.00 across all candidates — the probability axiom requires the sum to be ≈ $1.00, so the excess is a within-venue arb signal. Selling every YES leg captures the excess upfront; exactly one candidate resolves YES at $1.00, the rest at $0.

  1. kalshi
    Sum of YES = $2.361 across 46 candidates — excess 136¢
    13605 bps

§ Recent news

No news has been matched to this event yet. As Storm's news matcher links incoming items from its public-source feed (USGS, NOAA, FRED, Census, BEA, the White House, State Dept, DOD, Wikinews, Wikipedia, Metaculus, etc.) to canonical events, recent updates appear here.

§ Canonical outcomes

  • steve-hilton Steve Hilton
  • eric-swalwell Eric Swalwell
  • california California
  • tom-steyer Tom Steyer
  • katie-porter Katie Porter
  • chad-bianco Chad Bianco
  • matt-mahan Matt Mahan
  • xavier-becerra Xavier Becerra
  • other Other / No candidate named